Not the beginning of the end... But the end of the beginning?

Bill Gates, known for anticipating major shifts a decade ahead:

In his latest climate reflections, Gates positions current progress as a pivotal transition.

The engineering and policy breakthroughs driving the green transition have taken root, and as “Green Premiums” reach zero, the opening phase of climate action increasingly sustains itself.

Technologies Entering Self-Sustaining Phase

Gates highlights that sectors such as solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles have matched or surpassed legacy fuels in cost, producing structural shifts in energy, transport, and manufacturing. As these markets and technologies reach maturity, the narrative moves from one of subsidy-driven emergence to self-propelled momentum.

This, in Gates’ view, marks the conclusion of the initial, intervention-heavy chapter of climate action, opening onto new strategic terrain.

Rebalancing Focus: Human Impact and Adaptation major theme in Gates’ argument is the evolving metric for climate success. The analysis shifts from pure temperature and emissions targets to a broader assessment of how solutions reach and support people most affected by environmental and economic shocks.

Gates points out that, for many communities, poverty and poor health remain greater risks than warming itself. He advocates that progress in economic development and healthcare should be integral to adaptation efforts—citing examples such as AI-enabled farming advice and expanded vaccine access.

Strategic Implications for Climate Actors

Gates’ perspective has concrete implications for policymakers, communicators, and funders. As the transition joins a self-sustaining trajectory over the next few years, the emphasis is on effective allocation—prioritising investments and messaging that safeguard vulnerable populations, avoid unintended harmful side effects, and cultivate resilient, inclusive growth.

Gates cautions against policies that ignore the social context or hinder vital development pathways, signalling a need for more nuanced approaches to climate support and measurement.

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Not our words of course, not his either obviously, but is the core of what he is saying and he is asking us to start to take the technical element of the transition as now inevitable - and so now we need to start to really understand how we can minimise the inevitable impacts on those who can least afford them.